Wednesday, June 11, 2014

P/E-ratio for Dow Jones, june 10th 2014 - 2014e: 17 2015e: 15

The weighted P/E-ratio for Dow Jones Industrial Average on the tenth of june 2014 is 16.9 for estimated earnings 2014 and 15.3 for estimated earnings 2015.

Estimates are retrieved from 4-traders.com and the index P/E is weighted. Individual P/E-ratio estimates from 4-traders.com below.

Sunday, March 30, 2014

Russia shortens crimean life expectancy by two years

The population of Crimea might shorten their lifespan by two years, by joining the Russian Federation. The life expectancy of dysfunctional Russia is below the global average, at a level where you find developing countries, and two years lower than Ukraine.

It is not a question of the old Soviet Union and socialism, as functional countries like Estonia have increased their lifespan since the fall of the Soviet Union. As for the heritage of socialism, one of the last socialist dictatorships, Cuba, has an life expectancy on par with the United States.
Click on the graphic for sharper resolution

Even though there has been positive developmens in the Russian Federation the last years, the life expectancy is still lower than it was at it's height during the Soviet Union. The russian society is highly dysfunctional.

It is understandable why Ukraine looks towards the west, and why Georgia is willing to fight for it's life, literally, to not become part of Russia, russian standard of living and russian healthcare. They think of their children.

It is noteable that the life expectancy started to fall during the Soviet years, three years before the dissolution of the Soviet Union. This might be an interesting indicator of impending collapse.

If you want to live longer, you do like Estonia and look westwards and not towards dysfunctional Russia. Or you just follow the general development of the world.

Data from the World Bank.

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Apartment price indices for Sweden 1970 - 2013

Some people, especially Swedes heavy in debt in the largest Swedish cities, the banks, politicians, most economists and the real estate agents, claim that there is no housing bubble in Sweden because this time is different.

Below is apartment price indices for Sweden, spanning the period 1970 - 2013. Normally, when you see housing prices for Sweden you see prices for non-apartments, single standalone houses. The pricing bubble is even worse for apartments, which almost exclusivly are condominiums in Sweden, and not owners apartments, ie not real assets. A condominium is essentially only a club membership, and the club is frequently heavily in debt by itself. The club debts are not taken into account in the graphs below.

Recently the Swedish organisation for accountants tried to impose stricter rules for write-offs and depreciations for condominium clubs, as the clubs frequently never amortize and put away much too small funds for future necessary remodelling, renovations and standard maintenance. This was stopped short, as there was an outcry. The necessary higher condominium membership fees would crash the condo prices, but remember, there is no bubble in Sweden!

The lack of maintenance of Swedish condominium houses is a ticking bomb in itself, and on top of that you have the housing bubble as displayed below. Still, the international financial community is more than willing to finance this, as most of the financing is taking place outside of Sweden, and should be considered external debt. At present Swedish households alone have a debt of about 86% of Swedish GDP, almost all of it housing debt in various forms. The Swedish banking system is one of the largest in Europe, even the World, compared to GDP. Iceland, anyone?
Real apartment price index Sweden 1970 - 2013 (year 2000 = 100). "There is no housing bubble in Sweden!"
The inflation-adjusted prices were somewhat stable up until 1986. Since then real prices have increased by 754%. Compared to the average inflation-adjusted price 1970 - 1999, prices are up 521%. Yet, this is supposedly no bubble!

Nominal price index below.
Nominal apartment price index Sweden 1970 - 2013 (year 2000 = 100). "There is no housing bubble in Sweden!"
The indices above are for Sweden as a whole. The situation is much worse in particularly the capital, Stockholm, as well as in the second largest city1., Gothenburg.

1. By international standards, Gothenburg should more be considered a town, and calling Stockholm a city is stretching the imagination a little bit too far. On the other hand residents of Stockholm do have a very vivid imagination, considering that they generally deny the housing bubble.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Disqus admits security flaw - MD5-hashes disabled

Disqus admits that the MD5 security flaw exists and has removed the function från their API, disabling Gravatar support. Using the API in the manner of Researchgruppen or their employees or contractors is a breach of Disqus privacy policy and the account has been terminated.

The complete statement from Disqus regardning the MD5 flaw is available on their website.
"Disqus offers an API service that includes MD5 hashes of email addresses in order to use Gravatar, a commonly used third party service that enables users to display a consistent avatar across platforms. This appears to be a targeted attack on a group of individuals using pattern matching of their activity across the web, associated with email addresses used by those individuals. [...] ​Further, we are disabling Disqus’ use of the Gravatar service and removing the MD5 hash email addresses from the API."
Help Net Security has an article about the flaw, in which I, Lars Wilderäng, is quoted from this blog. I must re-iterate that it was the security engineer David Remahl (@chmod007 on Twitter) who made the the security flaw public. I only spread the news when I discovered what I considered real news and a serious breach of privacy in Disqus. My Swedish blog is the largest independent (not affiliated with any employer, media house, political party or other outlet) Swedish blog on serious subjects (ie not fashion, celebrities or sports), mainly economy, finance, environment and politics, and as such news published by me can spread fast.

Ordinary Swedish journalists generally lack the technological know-how to understand the technology and the serious implications of security flaws, and I've been consulted, but not quoted, by journalists in several other related cases. Mainly the Snowden files and the fact that many Swedish government organisations, municipalities and companies are open for industrial espionage by using Google or Microsoft e-mail services, even for internal organisation mail, which NSA have full access to.

Industrial espionage is one of NSA:s tasks, and may be used in order to let american companies have an advantage when placing bids on contracts, as they may see other bidders offerings to for example Swedish government organisations. NSA may also get intimate knowledge of key individuals private lives, which also can be used to the advantage of US companies and foreign policy, for example by easier making friends with politicians by discussing their hobbies or favourite subjects when meeting informally. The man on the street may very well lose his job due to unfair competition practices on behalf of US companies cooperating with the NSA, but most people don't think they have anything to fear from the monitoring of the Internet.

Back in Sweden, the Bonnier Group tabloid Expressen is now publishing names of private individuals, not politicians, who have commented on hate speech sites, identified by the Disqus security flaw.

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

FLASH: Disqus cracked - security flaw reveals user e-mail addresses

The Swedish company Resarchgruppen has cracked the Disqus commenting system, enabling them to identify Disqus users by their e-mail addresses. The crack was done in cooperation with the Bonnier Group tabloid Expressen, in order to reveal politicians commenting on Swedish hate speech-sites. (Bonnier/Expressen, article in Swedish)

The crack uses a serious security flaw in the Disqus API:s, enabling the extraction of MD5 hashes of user e-mail addresses. By matching the MD5 hashes by brute force vs an e-mail database users are identified.

Example of the attack vector, as revealed by Twitter user chmod007, security engineer David Remahl.
https://disqus.com/api/3.0/users/details.json?user=username:USERNAME&api_secret=secret
The Disqus commenting system has over 50 million users world wide and is used by 750 000 media sites and blogs (Wikipedia). They are no longer necessarily anonymous.

Update: Looking for 150 million e-mail addresses to match vs Disqus accounts? Download the 150 million user e-mails from the intrusion into Adobe's user database.

Update 2: Researchgruppen and possibly Expressen might be in violation of the Disqus terms of service, which they probably have to agree to in order to access the API. See below.
"Service Rules. You agree not to engage in any of the following prohibited activities: (i) copying, distributing, or disclosing any part of the Service in any medium, including without limitation by any automated or non-automated “scraping” except for uses allowed under the “Feed and API” section below; [...](vii) collecting or harvesting any personally identifiable information, including account names, from the Service; (viii) uploading, posting, transmitting, sharing, storing or otherwise making publicly available on the site, or other channels, any private, personally identifiable information of any third partyincluding, but not limited to: addresses, phone numbers, email addresses, Social Security numbers and credit card numbers; [...] (xii) accessing any content on the Service through any technology or means other than those provided or authorized by the Service or Disqus’ written permission;"

Thursday, July 4, 2013

Egypt oil production 1965 - 2012


Egypt provides an interesting study in oil production, peak oil and the export land model. Not only has the country passed national peak oil, it is also an example of the export land model with increasing national consumption, combined with climbing oil prices.

Egyptens oil production, consumption and
net exports 1965-2012
National peak oil occured in 1996 (EIA) at 934 kboed. The net oil exports peaked at 471 kboed in 1995 and with almost linear consumption increases the country now imports 91 000 net barrels of oil daily.

At the same time the income from oil exports, based on the average annual Brent reference oil price - real income is lower depending on oil quality and transport costs, from 3.259 billion USD for the entire 1996 to import costs of 3.707 billion USD in 2012. A difference of 7 billion USD yearly.

The western world naturally thanks Egypt for having produced and sold it's oil exports cheaply back in the 80:s and 90:s.

Rising oil prices and new investments managed to stop the decline in national production, resulting in a new, lower peak, in 2009 but the production has since started to fall again, in spite of rising oil prices since 2009.