Thursday, July 4, 2013

Egypt oil production 1965 - 2012


Egypt provides an interesting study in oil production, peak oil and the export land model. Not only has the country passed national peak oil, it is also an example of the export land model with increasing national consumption, combined with climbing oil prices.

Egyptens oil production, consumption and
net exports 1965-2012
National peak oil occured in 1996 (EIA) at 934 kboed. The net oil exports peaked at 471 kboed in 1995 and with almost linear consumption increases the country now imports 91 000 net barrels of oil daily.

At the same time the income from oil exports, based on the average annual Brent reference oil price - real income is lower depending on oil quality and transport costs, from 3.259 billion USD for the entire 1996 to import costs of 3.707 billion USD in 2012. A difference of 7 billion USD yearly.

The western world naturally thanks Egypt for having produced and sold it's oil exports cheaply back in the 80:s and 90:s.

Rising oil prices and new investments managed to stop the decline in national production, resulting in a new, lower peak, in 2009 but the production has since started to fall again, in spite of rising oil prices since 2009.

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