Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Peak oil exports occured in 2005

The export market for oil peaked in 2005, although 2012 showed a slight increase in available export volumes.
At the same time China's and India's net oil imports reached a new all time high.
This means that even less oil is available for importing countries, when taking into account the increased consumption in India and China. Most OECD- and EU-countries need to buy oil on the shrinking exports market.
Adjusted for chinese and indian imports the export volumes has fallen 12.7% since 2005.

With a linear continued development the export market for oil will have vanished in 49 years, but the global total liquids oil production didn't fall 2005, it stagnated and entered a plateau-phase and has even increased somewhat the last few years. Once peak oil hits and production starts to fall, the available export market will vanish in 10-15 years, and several models show that the oil market exports will be gone by around 2030.