Wednesday, April 8, 2015

The House of Fraud: No oil glut - Saudi-Arabian oil production is falling

The narrative of a Saudi-Arabian oil glut dumping the oil price is in reality a fictional narrative. Production data on Saudi-Arabia actually shows that the crude oil production in the country is falling simultaneously with the oil price. There is no substance to the narrative that Saudi-Arabia has dumped the oilprice, unless it is paper oil or temporary oil in storage - both temporary effects.

Statistics of crude oil production in Saudi-Arabia below, via Trading Economics, who get their data from the EIA. Spot oil prices for WTI and Brent is directly from the EIA.
Saudi-bluffen: Saudi-Arabiens oljeproduktion och oljepriset.
If Saudi-Arabia has dumped paper oil in the form of financial futures, they will have to buy them back when they cannot deliver on the contracts, and the oil price will rapidly return. And if they have dumped their above ground oil reserves, the effect is temporary and exports will in fact slow down when the above ground storage will need to be replenished.

Either way, temporarily knocking out expensive North American shale oil production has been successfully achieved, either through dumping of futures, above ground storage or pure spin and hot air. The oil price will recover.

In fact, the oil production of Saudi-Arabia has fallen approximately 6% since august 2013. Any real oil glut from Saudi-Arabia is non existant.

In reality, Saudi-Arabia experienced national peak oil in november 1980 and the country hasn't managed to increase it's oil production significantly since 2013.

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